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Discussion Starter #1
Overblown or under diagnosed?

Anyone a little worried about markets, portfolios, replacement parts?
 

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Not overblown. It will not be contained. It has a long incubation period and a high rate of carriers with no symptoms. Death rate appears to be at least 50 times higher than the flu. When it hits a country, it will overwhelm the health care system.
 

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Im more worried with Lyme personally, it's getting worse every year with these mild winters.
Need to invest in guinea hens. They'll clean up your ticks and your lyme!

But then we might need to worry about bird flu again, instead of coronavirus.
 

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I think it's under diagnosed, and it's well beyond the possibility of containment. Overblown??? You be the judge...

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They just canceled Light+Build in Frankfurt with just 1.5 weeks before it starts. It is the biggest conference Frankfurt holds and a tremendous economic impact.... so I am figuring out that at the moment....
 

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There had been a hope we would have contained it in the PRC. Once it hit the EU, all hopes are containing it are lost.

The icing on the cake was the flight attendant walking around LAX and on planes spreading it. One of the most connected airports in the world.

With a 14 day incubation period, there are already infected people walking around in SoCal and other places, spreading it, and don't even know it.

Good news, we have a biotech company here in San Diego that thinks they have already found a viable vaccine for it.
 

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Discussion Starter #9
Fav internet line so far:

This is not the flu. If it was they would not be talking about "community mitigation efforts".
 

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Good news, we have a biotech company here in San Diego that thinks they have already found a viable vaccine for it.
Apparently there's about 90 drug trials underway in China right now.

 

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Most accurate data currently for mortality rate:
-influenza averages about 0.1%
-SARS was about 10% on average
-Ebola was 25 to 90% depending on outbreak
-Coronavirus according to China CDC about 2.5% thus far (approx 75k cases), but escalates to 8% if over 80yo

All of the above vary by agency and country doing the reporting...
 

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-Coronavirus according to China CDC about 2.5% thus far (approx 75k cases), but escalates to 8% if over 80yo
Not that you can believe the numbers from China, but the numbers are higher. The rate is somewhere between the death/case ratio and the death/recovered ratio.

2810 / 82557 = 3.4%
2810 / 33252 = 8.5%


Outside of China the rates will be lower, but it means at least 3.4% of cases will require hospitalization, probably over 5%. That will overrun the hospital capacity quickly.
 

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Discussion Starter #13
I think Red made a point, medical capacity not scaled for a big event.

Going to be an interesting next few weeks. Somewhere between Alex Jones and CDC briefings.

Personally going to be avoiding air travel, crowds, and will be eating meals at home.
 

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Keep healthy, lots of vitamin C and D (especially folks up north and older folks), spend time outside and away from crowds. Zinc is supposed to help your immune system too. Not much else to be done at this point.

And keep your power dry, just in case.
 

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Discussion Starter #15
Keep healthy, lots of vitamin C and D (especially folks up north and older folks), spend time outside and away from crowds. Zinc is supposed to help your immune system too. Not much else to be done at this point.

And keep your power dry, just in case.
We are mega dosing C, high dosing D for a week then will drop to RDA, outside is good if no neighbors (we are lucky in that regard), and avoiding crowds. Zicam and zinc already, as very mld winter and short period of hard freeze means plenty of molds and pollens this spring. Tablespoon of honey per day.

As to your last point, there was a boating mishap years ago :)

Local county emergency management was on news last night stating population should be prepared with 2 weeks of food. Standard DHS recommendation, I know, but not often mentioned other that occasional PSA.

My wife and I figure that any preparation we have done will either be needed, or we just bought next years food at this years prices, and now we can dry camp damn near anywhere. I always wanted an MSR Guardian water purifier and our first aid kits were in need up of updating.

Keep in mind that the US forecast numbers we are all seeing represent best case, and don’t take into account the number of US hospital beds available (~1M) the number of ventilators available (<100K), the percentages of each already in use.

AP news about HHS whistleblower: “The complaint deals with Department of Health and Human Services employees sent to Travis and March Air Force bases in California to assist the quarantined evacuees....Although team members had gloves at times and masks at other times, they lacked full protective gear and received no training on how to protect themselves in a viral hot zone, according to a description provided by the congressional office. They had no respirators. While helping the evacuees, team members noticed that workers from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention were in full gear to protect them from getting sick”.

We have our Top Men on this.
 

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Discussion Starter #17
I think there were probably numerous Patient 0’s, coming to states at different times. So there are many vectors, lots of mistakes being made. And a lot of trying to keep the whole thing from spinning out of control.

San Antonio individual - release and then re-appearance of symptoms. Hospitals following CDC flow chart and not testing because no Wuhan vector, the care center where I think so far 4 have died. Comedy of errors.

IMO it is already here, spreading, and a few weeks from now things will be cranking. Read this yesterday:

An interesting thought experiment.

Testing kits will not be available to the state departments of health until early next week.
Further testing will be pushed out to obvious, but not state level locations late next week. Sending testing kits to New York City would be an example here.
Guessing it will be some time late next week before the CDC, with a slower OODA loop than the virus, changes the testing recommendations to include anyone with symptoms of a viral illness.
Testing will jump sharply thereafter. It will take a week or two after that to work through the backlog and get a feel for what is really going on. By then the virus will have spread quite a bit, and I think somewhere in the neighborhood of 3 week from now is when we will see the first pronouncements of quarantines, school closures etc. I would guess that will also be about the time we will have a decent feel for the actual spread in the US.
On a more hopeful note, that’s also about the same time we should hear back preliminary data from the monster number of clinical trials that are currently ongoing. Mostly run by the Chinese, these trials are looking as current FDA approved drugs that could be used off-label for treatment of the severely or critically ill. Based on computer based structural prediction models, there are quite a few candidates. That won’t slow down the spread but will probably drop the death toll.
In terms of when things will get bad enough to overwhelm medical care and inflate the mortality numbers here in the US, that is a complex question that involves significant amounts of “wild ass” in the guessing. I put the initiation of quarantines at about 3 weeks from now, as above. We would be early in the exponential phase at that point, I would guess we will see the number of cases rise about a week or two after that. Based on what I am seeing reported, the first week of the disease is the run-in to weeks 2-3, when you really get sick. It won’t take much of a rise in sick cases to overwhelm the medical system that is already strapped. So, my back of the napkin guess is about 7-8 weeks from now is when things will be ugly.
Reality, however, doesn’t care about my opinion, and there are lots of things that could throw this off. Finding a good drug that treats it, or even better could be used to prevent it, would be nice. It would have limited impact up front due to lack of availability, but that could ramp quickly. Maybe Trump is right and warmer weather will help. Maybe we will get a handle on the role of kids in the spread of the disease. Right now they are out of proportion UNaffected by the disease, but are they carrying it and infecting others?
Things could go the other way, too. What if we find out that the Chinese have been downplaying this all along and the numbers are actually much worse than presented? Too many variables to really know.
I predict that in the next 1-2 weeks, Trump will try to shut down a large part of the media reporting, similar to what Obama did with the first Ebola epidemic. Unlike Obama, however, the press is his enemy and they will almost certainly defy him on that issue. This will be a make-or-break issue for Trump, and at the moment he’s not being fed good info.
Americans being Americans, it will be near impossible to maintain an effective quarantine. The economy here will be in even greater straits than China, as only a very small percentage Of Americans will have adequate cash reserves to be able to tolerate 2-4 weeks without a paycheck. Simply finding child care will be an incredible hardship for working families.
(Does this give folks on welfare a competitive advantage in terms of exposure and ability to maintain lifestyle, avoid creditors, not default on loans? Probably. It may also favor the Bern. Making promises that favor safety over freedom will be very enticing to those staring down the possibility of repossession of their homes, cars, etc Most of the 3rd and 4th order effects of this pandemic are not favorable to Trump or Team Freedom)
The sign of a company with a quick OODA loop are the ones that are already determining what component of their business can be done via telework, creating flexible shift options so that people can hand off child care with another working spouse, those that have stocked deep hand washing equipment or sanitizer and cleaning solutions. The quick ones have already obtained alternate sources of parts and supplies, etc.

The slow OODA loops are those hospitals who only yesterday have started to review their PPE supplies and have discovered, to their horror, that all masks not under lock and key have grown legs and disappeared.
 
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