Made some progress today. Got everything torn down to find that the belt was disintegrating due to a siezing idler bearing. The timing case was filling with minute pieces of rubber as the idler allowed it to chafe (the idler was losing it's grease). I didn't order an idler originally but have one on it's way now. Obviously I'm relieved to have found this.
I'm still baffled that none of the domestic sources offer this timing kit, though. It seems like there are a lot of us running 200tdis over here and having a single kit of timing belt, tensioner, idler, gaskets and even the water pump and belts seems like a no-brainer kit to have on the shelf.