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  #41  
Old August 4th, 2015, 08:53 AM
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I would probably disagree. Diverse work experiences are typically pretty damn valuable. I preach this to my own kids all the time. Over my 25 year career I have hired a lot of kids out of college and by far the ones with the strongest work ethic and ability to adapt quickly come from the large state schools and that have had multiple job experiences. The kids coming from the other schools are smart and a little more polished but they haven't worked for very many different types of people and struggle to blend in and think on their feet without a manual.
Developing 'the situation' and avoiding the tyranny of 'the plan' is the name of the game...
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  #42  
Old August 4th, 2015, 10:08 AM
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I would probably disagree. Diverse work experiences are typically pretty damn valuable. I preach this to my own kids all the time. Over my 25 year career I have hired a lot of kids out of college and by far the ones with the strongest work ethic and ability to adapt quickly come from the large state schools and that have had multiple job experiences. The kids coming from the other schools are smart and a little more polished but they haven't worked for very many different types of people and struggle to blend in and think on their feet without a manual.
Had the same conversation with a friend who with her husband form an incredibly powerful business team that has served them so very very well for thirty years. She was delighted to hear that my oldest has completely shaken off the HS bubble that we live in, at College he has dived deep into subjects he never had access to before. Psychology, neuroscience, Music and German (he has spanish figured out). He is having a very successful summer working at a local eatery. Customers are funny people and he's getting to meet many of them.

A far better real world experience than I got as a college undergrad. Working at Banks and American express in their pre computer era filing depts taught me nothing.
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  #43  
Old August 6th, 2015, 06:29 PM
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We just put in a full-price offer on a house...and we're hoping they'll accept it. Reminds me of 2005.
Well we just let that full price offer sit for four days without an accept/reject response from the sellers and our agent warned theirs that our offer would either be modified or pulled by 5pm if no response was given by then, so our offer just went down $10k.
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  #44  
Old August 6th, 2015, 06:33 PM
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I will happily take 2008 prices on vintage 911s.
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Are there shocks that I can addjust up and down like my friends LX460? That would be very cool!
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  #45  
Old August 6th, 2015, 07:29 PM
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Originally Posted by rijosho View Post
Well we just let that full price offer sit for four days without an accept/reject response from the sellers and our agent warned theirs that our offer would either be modified or pulled by 5pm if no response was given by then, so our offer just went down $10k.
No response from the seller seems odd.
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  #46  
Old August 6th, 2015, 07:53 PM
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Originally Posted by LuisC View Post
I, for one, enjoy conversations of common interest. Yes, I'm on this forum to both learn and help participate in everything Land Rover. But every now and then, it's nice to sit back over a coffee or a cold beer (dependent on time of day) and chat about other interest.
Likewise.
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  #47  
Old August 6th, 2015, 08:25 PM
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I will happily take 2008 prices on vintage 911s.
No $hit. I missed that boat too
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  #48  
Old August 6th, 2015, 08:54 PM
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The debt situation is the elephant in the room. It's the straw that'll break the camels back when things turn. 2008 never left, we just moved he debt to the govt's books. Politicians hide behind the historical debt to gdp argument, but notionally it's too much debt and not sustainable - especially since the govt is supporting our gdp with - you guessed it - more debt (and QE). When rates go up its going to be a disaster; we won't be able to afford our debt payments to China and Japan. Then what? You can do the math from there.

Bottom line is the job outsourcing game has sent this country into a structural tailspin, killing jobs and pumping up debt via our "we want to by your cheap goods" relationship with China and it'll be interesting to see if we have the ability to dig ourselves out without the underpinnings of good jobs and a balanced economy.

No one knows how this will end. Not even the politicians. It's unchartered territory.

------ Follow up post added August 6th, 2015 08:56 PM ------

Ps. I think China is playing the long game on us. They tapped into our greed and we now owe them lots of $ and we have gotten very little for it (except iPhones and cheap Walmart crap). They are smart.
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  #49  
Old August 6th, 2015, 10:42 PM
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I think the debt thing is problematic but not because of overseas ownership of it, I think that is an overhyped concern. Primarily because it isn't a significant chunk of the debt relative to the size. Moreover the idea that the payments on the debt will go up and we won't be able to afford it makes it just as much China (and Japan's) problem as ours. The simplest adage still bears out: owe the bank $500,000 you have a problem, owe them $500M and they (we) have a problem.

Right now we all have that problem.

With all that being said the Chinese long game may be smart but its a lot more brittle than it appears from the outside or from those that fear China b/c Russia isn't enough of an enemy (or whatever other reason one comes up with). China's economic system is unsustainable and not terribly resilient, especially compared to ours.

Oh, and what we've gotten from all this is very much akin to a subtle point brought up earlier in this thread: these debts are still being bought and paid in USD. RMB, that isn't even a player in global currency flows and to make it one is a whole different discussion about the PRC. As long as the dollar stays at that ~65% mark globally I don't think things are nearly as bad as folks are making them about to be.
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  #50  
Old August 6th, 2015, 10:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ssi19 View Post
The debt situation is the elephant in the room. It's the straw that'll break the camels back when things turn. 2008 never left, we just moved he debt to the govt's books. Politicians hide behind the historical debt to gdp argument, but notionally it's too much debt and not sustainable - especially since the govt is supporting our gdp with - you guessed it - more debt (and QE). When rates go up its going to be a disaster; we won't be able to afford our debt payments to China and Japan. Then what? You can do the math from there.

Bottom line is the job outsourcing game has sent this country into a structural tailspin, killing jobs and pumping up debt via our "we want to by your cheap goods" relationship with China and it'll be interesting to see if we have the ability to dig ourselves out without the underpinnings of good jobs and a balanced economy.

No one knows how this will end. Not even the politicians. It's unchartered territory.

------ Follow up post added August 6th, 2015 08:56 PM ------

Ps. I think China is playing the long game on us. They tapped into our greed and we now owe them lots of $ and we have gotten very little for it (except iPhones and cheap Walmart crap). They are smart.
Yep, that's the 30,000 foot view I agree. The long game problem.
There's also a short game issue domestically with imbalance of goods/services and wealth. Now wait, I not getting all Jason England on everyone saying that we all need equal living standards and free healthcare, I'm just stating the reality that the so-called 1-percent really became the 0.5 or 0.25-percent but on massive steroids. Then the upper middle just takes on more debt and plays the leverage table. Maybe not with HELOCS this time, but total HH debt. Everyone's got a new whip these days. My roofing contractor rolls up in a $50k diesel pickup. Landscapers all have new rigs too. We tried to buy a Grand Cherokee Overland last month to replace the L322 and they acted like they were a Bentley dealer. No money off invoice, shitty trade allowance and told us the truck would be sold that week anyway. It was.

People back to moving into housing that's really beyond their means again as well. Yes, I acknowledge the credit is tighter these days, but what's your plan when your 3.5 adjustable matures in 5 years and property taxes are up 10-20 percent and the refi rates are in the 6-handle range. Your monthly nut could easily double. Will your gross income double in five years? You betting that the house gains that much equity in that time. Just saying, it's all happening again. Whether the fire starts next week in the FX markets or next quarters when QE is eased or some other reason.

You hit the nail on the head. 2008 was never officially retired, it was cleverly repackaged and sold to the next generation (which is really sort of now) it's been almost ten years now, can you believe it?
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  #51  
Old August 6th, 2015, 10:59 PM
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So what do I transfer my entire 401k into while the world burns?

In 2008, I heard a lot of senior guys / execs at work acting like they knew everything, but none of them knew anything. Lots of frankly poor advice, like buy gold, cash out the 401k, etc.

I never once heard the right answer: straight up zero loss on transferring everything to bonds. 300% gain transferring everything to the S&P500 at the bottom.

OK, financial gurus, spill it. Where do I put it all?
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  #52  
Old August 7th, 2015, 12:21 AM
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Ed...stay the course young padwan. It's only old farts like me that have to worry. Shit I couldn't spell 401K when I was your age. Leave it to the the gurus and contine to worry about tensile strength of stainless steel . Actually the best bet for you is diversification...put it in those managed funds based on your retirement year. Can't go wrong. Unless you pull it and put it all in real estate but you are 2.5 yrs too late for that.
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  #53  
Old August 11th, 2015, 12:56 PM
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....generally speaking, a historical bear market indicator: the DJIA 50 day average price has fallen below the 200 day average price. Though it's up nearly 5% from a year ago, it's down over 2% for 2015. Volatility anyone?

This chart is floating around the twitterverse:



Sheesh.
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  #54  
Old August 11th, 2015, 01:54 PM
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So guys, lets say some newlyweds were looking to buy their first house in the next three months and that person was looking in the 450-550k range. Their income is steady (both teachers) and their credit is good. . Should they jump on it now, or wait till '16 ? If something drastic happens will loans be much harder to get? Or would there be an advantage to wait? Rates going up soon? down?

No clue about this stuff really. . .
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  #55  
Old August 11th, 2015, 02:09 PM
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Originally Posted by revtor View Post
So guys, lets say some newlyweds were looking to buy their first house in the next three months and that person was looking in the 450-550k range. Their income is steady (both teachers) and their credit is good. . Should they jump on it now, or wait till '16 ? If something drastic happens will loans be much harder to get? Or would there be an advantage to wait? Rates going up soon? down?

No clue about this stuff really. . .
that's a different proposition. Housing needs are just that (needs). too many people look at their residence as a piggy bank or investment. It's just housing. It also happens to be the average American's largest asset (and debt). You have to do what makes financial sense and sometimes that pencils-out to renting.
It's a fools errand to try to time any "bottom" or "top".
If you're talking housing just buy what you can afford with a reasonable financing product (not some crazy over engineered adjustable rate with a 2nd mortgage right away). If it makes sense tax wise (writing off the cost of borrowing and RE taxes), then it makes sense. If you're talking $450-$550k it's not going to crush you even if the market falls 10%.


It's the folks who buy $1MM + homes who really belong in $500-$750k homes that go tits up when they loose 10% of a $1.5MM home when their equity evaporates.


Just buy within your means and you'll be fine no matter what.
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  #56  
Old August 11th, 2015, 02:10 PM
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Originally Posted by revtor View Post
So guys, lets say some newlyweds were looking to buy their first house in the next three months and that person was looking in the 450-550k range. Their income is steady (both teachers) and their credit is good. . Should they jump on it now, or wait till '16 ? If something drastic happens will loans be much harder to get? Or would there be an advantage to wait? Rates going up soon? down?

No clue about this stuff really. . .

So that's the situation I'm in. Except we're not teachers.

I can't tell you what to do, but u can tell you what we're doing.

We got rid of all debt, built a robust emergency fund, and are now saving for the biggest down payment that we can.

There are a lot of other factors. Like we both work and have great jobs, but that might change when the family grows and my wife opts to be a home maker. Not sure I want that same home on one income. I can do it but that would start to cut into our margins.
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  #57  
Old August 11th, 2015, 02:17 PM
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Jackie, thanks for the input. yeah were not trying to time the market and that price point is our comfort zone. Just looking for any warnings or advise from those that have BTDT.. Comes down to what we can find that fits us.. hopefully something on the lower side of that range! Vasily good luck with your journey, were on the same path. Going to keep it conservative and ride it out. What else can we do. We paid rent for a few years, than moved in with family for the last year to help us get a solid downpayment… Ive got family in the mortgage and real estate businesses so we're working with solid folks.

And my wife is as adamant about finding a place with a big garage as I am!

~Steve
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  #58  
Old August 11th, 2015, 02:25 PM
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Market timing never works. And as expected the advice here is all over the place. Goldbugs, preppers, etc. real estate only etc. Even a broken clock is right twice a day! Everyone has different risk tolerances and goals, and each person needs to figure that out first and then have a plan and stick to it.

As for mortgage rates, if you can qualify, underwriting is a bitch, get one or even refinance now. The Fed will be raising rates we have been talking about for the last 4 years, probably this fall...
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  #59  
Old August 11th, 2015, 02:30 PM
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Vasily, buy a house you can afford on one income. Trust me on this one.
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  #60  
Old August 11th, 2015, 02:31 PM
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Originally Posted by LostChord View Post
....generally speaking, a historical bear market indicator: the DJIA 50 day average price has fallen below the 200 day average price. Though it's up nearly 5% from a year ago, it's down over 2% for 2015. Volatility anyone?

This chart is floating around the twitterverse:

Graph the VIX (volatility index) using a monthly measure back to 2005, an you'll see it spiked at 88 in 10/08, and today a we speak at 14.20



Sheesh.
Graph the VIX (volatility index) using a monthly measure back to 2005, an you'll see it spiked at 88 in 10/08, and today a we speak at 14.20

------ Follow up post added August 11th, 2015 02:32 PM ------

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Originally Posted by Daddymow View Post
Vasily, buy a house you can afford on one income. Trust me on this one.
AMEN to that Raub!
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