Long-term Value - Defender Source
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  #1  
Old April 18th, 2011, 02:56 AM
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Brandon Donald
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Long-term Value

Iíd love to hear the groupís thoughts on the long-term value of NAS D90s. I drive one about daily. Never thought of it as an investment (although I do appreciate having one car that kind of holds value).

D90 holds value for a unique reason (of course). It isnít particularly old or rare (outside US). In 5 years, there could be a ton of post-í83 imports in the US. In 2021, will a NAS vehicle still be important (and valuable) compared to those imports, which can come much cheaper?

Other collectible cars hold value and appreciate considerably over time (with ups and downs along the way). But, over the long-term, they generally go up a lot over many years. Muscle cars that were worth $30k in 1991 are worth $100k today (I donít think NAS D90 values do that, but some trophies are worth nearly that today, so who knows).

Iíd love to hear where you guys think NAS D90 values are going over the next 5, 10 or 25 years.
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  #2  
Old April 18th, 2011, 07:50 AM
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My 2 cents. I think it's very difficult to say given the enormous spike in the collectible market and the wealth of a portion of our society. The "recession" has fueled an interest in alternative investments which skews the issue further. In some ways I think this mirrors the exact mistake made in the housing market in which there was a feeling that values could only go up. I think a lot of those $150k + muscle cars will loose value as only the rarest and most pristine will be prized. As for the Defender, I don't think the market will be as strong or wide based as it's a utility vehicle. On the other hand, a NAS truck is already a limited commodity and one that is completely original will probably always be prized by some collector. But I think for the majority of D90s, now is close to the peak due to a variety of factors.
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  #3  
Old April 18th, 2011, 12:12 PM
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Better than any SUV you can buy new.
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  #4  
Old April 18th, 2011, 12:39 PM
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if you bought a 95 new, put 20k miles on it, and sold it today for 50k you wouldnt be making out with a great investment. 30+k new is like 43k todays dollars. so, making 7 grand isnt really that great, but it is nice. when you factor in that most people have bought them used, and add in the maintenance and accessories, for most people, its break even at best. they hold their value better than other cars, but almost all of them continue to lose value.
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  #5  
Old April 18th, 2011, 02:55 PM
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Originally Posted by evilfij View Post
Better than any SUV you can buy new.
X2 on that - I don't see the NAS 90's as collector cars (maybe the 110s), but one should consider themselves lucky to own any vehicle that doesn't constantly depreciate.
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  #6  
Old April 18th, 2011, 03:18 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by knab View Post
In 5 years, there could be a ton of post-í83 imports in the US. In 2021, will a NAS vehicle still be important (and valuable) compared to those imports, which can come much cheaper
There are some things about the NAS that are unique, due to its federalization. Even if everyone imported LHD ROWs or RHD->LHD conversions (which I don't think they would), they wouldn't really be NAS defenders.

That said, I don't really see the market for second-hand Defenders ever "exploding". Due to import regs, even 10 years from now, you will never see a legally imported Defender younger than 25 years old and most people don't know enough about them or care about them enough to choose one over, say, a Jeep Wrangler.
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  #7  
Old April 18th, 2011, 04:25 PM
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market

I agree with you there. Mine is in pretty great shape, but I bought mine with the intent that I would use it off road, so I do. Will it be worth what I paid for it when I sell it? Eh, probably not.

But- it will have a market to sell.


Quote:
Originally Posted by sonoronos View Post
There are some things about the NAS that are unique, due to its federalization. Even if everyone imported LHD ROWs or RHD->LHD conversions (which I don't think they would), they wouldn't really be NAS defenders.

That said, I don't really see the market for second-hand Defenders ever "exploding". Due to import regs, even 10 years from now, you will never see a legally imported Defender younger than 25 years old and most people don't know enough about them or care about them enough to choose one over, say, a Jeep Wrangler.
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  #8  
Old April 18th, 2011, 05:02 PM
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I wouldn't be surprised to see something similar to the Series trucks happen to the NAS Defenders. After time the ones that weren't neglected or heavily modified maintain a pretty good value. It will be a diminishing market, though as our generation disappears.
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  #9  
Old April 21st, 2011, 01:20 AM
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Originally Posted by kevkon View Post
It will be a diminishing market, though as our generation disappears.
That is a good point. They are special to a group of people now. Will 10 year old kids be bidding them up 20 years from today? I would guess not, but possibly. FJ40s might hold some clues too.

I doubt mine will ever be sold, so I am kind of indifferent. I thought it was an interesting question when a friend mentioned there was no other '95-'97 vehicle that is worth MSRP. It got me thinking about it and the reasons why and whether Defender will follow other cars that don't depreciate or actually appreciate. The reason is totally unique. [He is not quite right, as there are a few Italian cars from the mid-90's, but those were very limited and hugely expensive to begin with.]

As a follow up, what would a clean, stock 97 D90 with 20k miles have been worth in 2002? Did they ever start a normal depreciation curve? Also, were they all sold immediately or hard to get when new? Did dealers just have them on the lot for sale or were they all bought immediately or pre-sold? I was in junior high at the time...
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Old April 21st, 2011, 09:18 AM
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There are some good points brought up here...I guess (in my mind, at least) the Defender has iconic status, in sort of the same way that the FJ40 Landcruiser, HMMWV, and the jeep Willys have. I think it has to do with the association with the military, which then turned into surplus for use by overlanders and as utility vehicles.

One thing that makes the Defender unique and interesting is that so many parts are interchangeable with trucks dating from today back to the 1940's. I think resale is helped by the idea that parts are available when needed.

It cost me $120 for a brand new front left fender from Rovers North, and that's with RN's markup. Even a Toyota Corolla would cost at least double that, easy.
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  #11  
Old April 21st, 2011, 12:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by knab View Post
As a follow up, what would a clean, stock 97 D90 with 20k miles have been worth in 2002? Did they ever start a normal depreciation curve? Also, were they all sold immediately or hard to get when new? Did dealers just have them on the lot for sale or were they all bought immediately or pre-sold? I was in junior high at the time...
94s and 95s did not sell well in the US. I know of more than a few 1994s that were bought in 1995 and 1995s bought in 1996. When the 1997s came out, they sold very well (hence the 500 extra LEs with jacked up MSRP). Three reasons for the change: (1) lots of people wanted an auto; (2) there were a lot more dealers by then; and (3) everyone knew it was the end of the line in the US for the defender.

A 20k 1997 D90 would have sold for 50k+ in 2002. If you didn't buy when new, you had to pay more than MSRP. From my perspective, the decrease in value has been linked only to the inevitable increase in miles and decrease in the condition of the trucks as they age.
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  #12  
Old April 21st, 2011, 01:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NoVaKevin View Post
if you bought a 95 new, put 20k miles on it, and sold it today for 50k you wouldnt be making out with a great investment. 30+k new is like 43k todays dollars. so, making 7 grand isnt really that great, but it is nice. when you factor in that most people have bought them used, and add in the maintenance and accessories, for most people, its break even at best. they hold their value better than other cars, but almost all of them continue to lose value.

seriously? I hope you are not in the Investment Business

If it takes 16 years ( specially 16 of the golden years ) to convert $ 30,000 into $ 50,000 I will suggest getting a Financial Advisor 66% profit no cumulative is the lousiest investment made. and if you take into account the cost of maintaining the asset, with your example you loose money
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Old April 21st, 2011, 01:43 PM
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I am talking purely from an aesthetics standpoint.
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  #14  
Old April 21st, 2011, 01:45 PM
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Gustavo

I might be confused. Isn't the statement you quoted agreeing with you?
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  #15  
Old April 21st, 2011, 01:51 PM
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i used this for my conversion...http://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm

and yes, we are in agreement. i ignored maintenance costs, but my point is that they depreciate, and very few appreciate to the point that people make money on them.
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  #16  
Old April 21st, 2011, 01:51 PM
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Horsey ..bite me

Barry,

what do you mean? of course my statement agrees with me *LOL*

I think Kevin tried to say, there is no investment at all and while 7,000 might sound nice on its own, in the overall picture does not count. Aside from me yanking his chain, I think ( hope ) that is what he meant
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