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  #1  
Old September 28th, 2012, 08:41 AM
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Any day traders here?

Just curious if any day traders/option traders are here.

Thoughts on the fourth Q starting Monday.
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  #2  
Old September 28th, 2012, 09:08 AM
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One of the best opportunities to day trade (for those without serious skills or experience) was the weeks preceding and following TARP and the collapse of the financial markets. If you had any sort of liquidity and traded leveraged financial ETFs correctly it was like you were standing inside a snowglobe full of cash!
If that moment occurs again (which it may)......

I know this doesn't answer your question, but you should still get a laugh from the Trading PLaces video clip.
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  #3  
Old September 28th, 2012, 10:03 AM
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Originally Posted by Jackie Treehorn View Post




One of the best opportunities to day trade (for those without serious skills or experience) was the weeks preceding and following TARP and the collapse of the financial markets. If you had any sort of liquidity and traded leveraged financial ETFs correctly it was like you were standing inside a snowglobe full of cash!
If that moment occurs again (which it may)......

I know this doesn't answer your question, but you should still get a laugh from the Trading PLaces video clip.
Awesome scene.

That is what I'm wondering.. if we get a similar situation in the 4q. So called fiscal cliff. The fed keeps throwing money into the market ans said they will continue to do so to hold the markets up, so who knows how this will all turn out. In the meantime not making anything sitting on the sidelines just waiting......I'm no pro by any means. I wonder if we will see another collapse like that, probably not as bad if it happens.... it just seems crazy all this cheap money all over the world. You would think it has to catch up sooner or later.


Just curious if any pros are here.
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  #4  
Old September 28th, 2012, 10:12 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jackie Treehorn View Post




One of the best opportunities to day trade (for those without serious skills or experience) was the weeks preceding and following TARP and the collapse of the financial markets. If you had any sort of liquidity and traded leveraged financial ETFs correctly it was like you were standing inside a snowglobe full of cash!
If that moment occurs again (which it may)......

I know this doesn't answer your question, but you should still get a laugh from the Trading PLaces video clip.
I'm not a day trader but this field is my profession. There are several events that can create opportunities but I'd advise NOT using leverage ETFs to express your view. These are complex securities that most retail and profession investors simple do not understand. Having tier 3 option trading will usually yield better results. If you do decide to go with leverage ETFs make sure you fully undersand how they work or you will underperform a more simple stratigy using options.
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  #5  
Old September 28th, 2012, 10:17 AM
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Originally Posted by lordhelemt View Post
I'm not a day trader but this field is my profession. There are several events that can create opportunities but I'd advise NOT using leverage ETFs to express your view. These are complex securities that most retail and profession investors simple do not understand. Having tier 3 option trading will usually yield better results. If you do decide to go with leverage ETFs make sure you fully undersand how they work or you will underperform a more simple stratigy using options.
Leverage ETF's over my head. I was thinking in terms of options or simply buying opportunities in individual stocks. And a good discussion on opinions of market direction.
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  #6  
Old September 28th, 2012, 10:55 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lordhelemt View Post
I'm not a day trader but this field is my profession. There are several events that can create opportunities but I'd advise NOT using leverage ETFs to express your view. These are complex securities that most retail and profession investors simple do not understand. Having tier 3 option trading will usually yield better results. If you do decide to go with leverage ETFs make sure you fully undersand how they work or you will underperform a more simple stratigy using options.

Hear you loud and clear. THat is true. Way too complicated for a non-specialist, let alone a retail trader. I was simply saying that the volitility created some real unprecidented market swings whereby traditional "shorting" financial stocks either wsn't possible for guys off the street or wasn't feasible.
I know less than nothing about chart trends, breakout points, resistance levels etc. but I do follow financial markets very closely.

It's probably poor advice to tell somebody to look into 2x/3x ETFs, but what do you expect when you ask for trading advice on a Defender forum! Just kidding, I am not helping Campbel and his original post, so I'll humbly bow-out of this conversation.
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  #7  
Old September 28th, 2012, 10:55 AM
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AEO has always done well for me. It has some decent cycles of which you can take advantage. They have relatively large cash reserves and low debt and do better than most retail from what I've seen.

Obviously get AAPL right after some sort of bad press when all the idiots dump it and expect it to tank. Hold it until right before a big release.
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  #8  
Old September 28th, 2012, 11:04 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jackie Treehorn View Post
Hear you loud and clear. THat is true. Way too complicated for a non-specialist, let alone a retail trader. I was simply saying that the volitility created some real unprecidented market swings whereby traditional "shorting" financial stocks either wsn't possible for guys off the street or wasn't feasible.
I know less than nothing about chart trends, breakout points, resistance levels etc. but I do follow financial markets very closely.

It's probably poor advice to tell somebody to look into 2x/3x ETFs, but what do you expect when you ask for trading advice on a Defender forum! Just kidding, I am not helping Campbel and his original post, so I'll humbly bow-out of this conversation.
No harm done...not really looking for advice on specifics things to do. Just wondering what if anything the pros on this forum think about general market direction regarding all the noise in the market about the fiscal cliff and the monetary easing. When I say day trading I should have been more clear, more like shorter term investing...days, weeks, months. I trade some options from time to time and buy and sell some stocks, real novice type stuff....small time.....Not Gordon Gieko thats for sure.

More interested in getting a good discussion of overall market moves.

------ Follow up post added September 28th, 2012 03:08 PM ------

Quote:
Originally Posted by mgreenspan View Post
AEO has always done well for me. It has some decent cycles of which you can take advantage. They have relatively large cash reserves and low debt and do better than most retail from what I've seen.

Obviously get AAPL right after some sort of bad press when all the idiots dump it and expect it to tank. Hold it until right before a big release.
Apple has been a good one, I wish I held the stock longer than I did that's for sure.

Hold right before a big release...boy has that worked. I will be interested to see what happens today when they release more sales numbers of the Iphone 5 since they seem to suggest supply issues. Also, VERY surprised Tim Cook apologized over the map....Not sure Jobs would have let that come out if it wasn't perfect.
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  #9  
Old September 28th, 2012, 11:16 AM
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If you're looking for short term trading opportunites i'd be trading the election then look into trading the cliff.

IMO the direction of the market will hing on the election. So trading ahead of the election is just a bet anyway. You could be right or wrong so just make sure you can put that $ at risk. I'm all for the occasional yo bet but prefer to hit doubles and triples than go for the homerun everytime at bat. In the long run I've found you'll do much better if you can get on base.
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  #10  
Old September 28th, 2012, 11:25 AM
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Originally Posted by lordhelemt View Post
If you're looking for short term trading opportunites i'd be trading the election then look into trading the cliff.

IMO the direction of the market will hing on the election. So trading ahead of the election is just a bet anyway. You could be right or wrong so just make sure you can put that $ at risk. I'm all for the occasional yo bet but prefer to hit doubles and triples than go for the homerun everytime at bat. In the long run I've found you'll do much better if you can get on base.
So true....That's why I love Vangaurd funds( or any managed fund), just put it in and try not to look long term you will be ok. Have to have some money to have some fun with and take a chance here or there.....like I said I'm small time......... as Conan Obrien says, give me 1 million dollars and I can easily turn it into 2, 3 or maybe 400k in a matter of weeks.


The election should be interesting to say the least, Politics aside I feel we are in trouble with either party winning. I guess if Obama wins and increases the DIV income next year we might see people pulling gains out to lock in the lower rate. If Romney wins not sure how he will possibly solve all the QE measures that have gone into the market not to mention Europe's shit show.

I just find the whole thing interesting, wish I knew more. The funny thing is half the so called pro's get it wrong most of the time. Look at all those strong buy ratings on Kodak days before it filed. I guess going to the casino and putting $ on black or red could be just as good of an idea as looking for big movers here and there. Or buying and holding D-90's
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  #11  
Old September 28th, 2012, 11:32 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lordhelemt View Post
I'm not a day trader but this field is my profession. There are several events that can create opportunities but I'd advise NOT using leverage ETFs to express your view. These are complex securities that most retail and profession investors simple do not understand. Having tier 3 option trading will usually yield better results. If you do decide to go with leverage ETFs make sure you fully undersand how they work or you will underperform a more simple stratigy using options.
By omission, your response implies options trading is less risky then 2x and 3x levered ETF's.
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  #12  
Old September 28th, 2012, 11:47 AM
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By omission, your response implies options trading is less risky then 2x and 3x levered ETF's. You've said you are in the business and you have your full name listed on the site here.

Firm Compliance Depts search the web... Not worth the risk.
Not looking for this thread to turn into something else all together, nor am I dumb enough to take advice and make trades based on words on a defender forum. I really started the tread to get some input on short term and long term market direction. Just a friendly discussion of some knowledgeable peoples different views.
JUST TO BE CLEAR.....I'm not looking to invest money from advice on a D-90 forum. It is just a discussion about where the market might be heading up or down. I think Treehorn was simply mentioning one example that had worked in the past, not recommending someone run out a buy buy buy....At least I didn't take it that way and even if someone said to go out and buy something I wouldn't.

SO TO BE CLEAR: THE THREAD is not looking for individual things to do, more what opinions are here on the market direction based on the recent actions by the fed. I'm thinking things might go down giving me some good prices to trade options or stocks with a little bit of money to have some fun with. BUT I'm probably wrong>
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  #13  
Old September 28th, 2012, 12:02 PM
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Originally Posted by Campbell View Post
Not looking for this thread to turn into something else all together, nor am I dumb enough to take advice and make trades based on words on a defender forum. I really started the tread to get some input on short term and long term market direction. Just a friendly discussion of some knowledgeable peoples different views.
JUST TO BE CLEAR.....I'm not looking to invest money from advice on a D-90 forum. It is just a discussion about where the market might be heading up or down. I think Treehorn was simply mentioning one example that had worked in the past, not recommending someone run out a buy buy buy....At least I didn't take it that way and even if someone said to go out and buy something I wouldn't.

SO TO BE CLEAR: THE THREAD is not looking for individual things to do, more what opinions are here on the market direction based on the recent actions by the fed. I'm thinking things might go down giving me some good prices to trade options or stocks with a little bit of money to have some fun with. BUT I'm probably wrong>
Thanks Campbell. I wasn't saying to buy or to sell. I was just saying leverage ETFs are difficult to understand and you should look at diffrent ways to express your view.

GYM, not sure what you are implying. To answer your question options can be less risky than leverage ETFs, they can be more toxic too. It just depends on how they are used and what you are trying to do. If you noticed I did mention tier 3 option trading which means you can lay off some risk.

I was just trying to help, not look for trouble so i'm off this thread.
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  #14  
Old September 28th, 2012, 12:05 PM
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Originally Posted by lordhelemt View Post
Thanks Campbell. I wasn't saying to buy or to sell. I was just saying leverage ETFs are difficult to understand and you should look at diffrent ways to express your view.

GYM, not sure what you are implying. To answer your question options can be less risky than leverage ETFs, they can be more toxic too. It just depends on how they are used and what you are trying to do. If you noticed I did mention tier 3 option trading which means you can lay off some risk.

I was just trying to help, not look for trouble so i'm off this thread.
I think it was pretty clear you weren't saying to buy or sell anything....I'm sure this thread is dead now.
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  #15  
Old September 28th, 2012, 12:11 PM
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  #16  
Old September 28th, 2012, 12:16 PM
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Originally Posted by mgreenspan View Post
AEO has always done well for me. It has some decent cycles of which you can take advantage. They have relatively large cash reserves and low debt and do better than most retail from what I've seen.

Obviously get AAPL right after some sort of bad press when all the idiots dump it and expect it to tank. Hold it until right before a big release.
I remember the good old days of ANF, seems a way off now.
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  #17  
Old September 28th, 2012, 04:38 PM
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Originally Posted by lordhelemt View Post
Thanks Campbell. I wasn't saying to buy or to sell. I was just saying leverage ETFs are difficult to understand and you should look at diffrent ways to express your view.

GYM, not sure what you are implying. To answer your question options can be less risky than leverage ETFs, they can be more toxic too. It just depends on how they are used and what you are trying to do. If you noticed I did mention tier 3 option trading which means you can lay off some risk.

I was just trying to help, not look for trouble so i'm off this thread.
Lord helmet: I did not mean to imply anything nor derail the OP's post. In fact after I read my own post, I edited it because it did come across a bit too Big Brotherly. I have no ax to grind and know you were just trying to help a fellow member out.

What I do have is simply a healthy respect for the risks associated with options trading (less risky, covered call "portfolio insurance" strategies, notwithstanding.) IMO, clarifying and emphasizing that risk can't be reiterated too often. My .02 cents.
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  #18  
Old September 28th, 2012, 05:13 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mgreenspan
AEO has always done well for me. It has some decent cycles of which you can take advantage. They have relatively large cash reserves and low debt and do better than most retail from what I've seen.

Obviously get AAPL right after some sort of bad press when all the idiots dump it and expect it to tank. Hold it until right before a big release.
One of Peter Lynch's first books around 20 years ago, "Beating the Street" dedicated a chapter on essentially following your tween aged daughter (or a pack of them) around the mail. Following this sound advice, one could have timed ANF and shift to AEO perfectly.
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Old September 28th, 2012, 07:40 PM
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One of Peter Lynch's first books around 20 years ago, "Beating the Street" dedicated a chapter on essentially following your tween aged daughter (or a pack of them) around the mail. Following this sound advice, one could have timed ANF and shift to AEO perfectly.
That's a good book!

ANF was crazy at one point. You could count on it running from 30-60 like clock work. Now they are looking for a buyer for the company I think to go private.

I wonder when and if that will happen to Apple, become uncool. All things must come to an end at some point. Become uncool not go private.

Facebook is another example right. Had a friend who got in on the ipo through his broker, I couldn't get in and didn't want to because I think Facebook is stupid. I also couldn't see how they were going to make money. Now he thinks I knew what I was talking about but it was really just dumb luck. One day it will turn and become uncool then look out below.

I have no daughters to follow around the mall and ask what's cool, and I certainly don't know what is cool because I'm old.
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Old May 7th, 2014, 11:31 AM
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Reviving this thread. I'm not a day trader but I actively manage my finances & investments and I have some cash that I'd like to put to work. What do you guys think of the market here? A little too frothy for me so I'm mostly cash (in my taxable account) but curious what others think.
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