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  #21  
Old October 15th, 2013, 12:50 PM
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My individual plan just more than doubled the monthly payment. I have never used the insurance once for health care.
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  #22  
Old October 15th, 2013, 01:58 PM
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Originally Posted by Jackie Treehorn View Post
I don't know what to attribute that to, but supposedly, the long term premise behind any of these mandated healthcare acts is that if everyone has access to (and is forced to subscribe) to a plan, then thoretically, they will engage in pre-emptive care. The highest healthcare costs are seen among the least heealthy (that makes sense) and theoretically if those people took care of themselves earlier in life then the providers would not be shelling out huge amounts of money to keep them alive.

Based on that, I don't see healthcare costs going down anywhere in the near future. More like the opposite, until (if it works) the general population is healthier as a whole in 5-10 years. Unlikely given the American way of life, but the way I understand it, that is what they are trying to accomplish. Maybe healthcare costs and permiums increase 5-10% annually over the next five years then stabilize?
The problem with this logic is that facts get in the way. There has NEVER been an empirical study that shows spending money on preventive care saves money on acute care down the road. We all want to believe it's true because it makes us feel good and makes us think we're doing something positive. The facts are there is no connection between preventive care and acute care. There just isn't.

We spend billions on preventive care because we are compassionate. It's the "If it saves just one life" mindset. Here's an example. The billions of dollars spent on mamograms is mostly wasted. We give them to all women every year. 90% of them will never get breast cancer, but we test everyone annually. From a strictly financial perspective, we'd be better off testing no one and accepting the cost of treatment. But we are a compassionate society and don't do that in order to hopefully catch a few cases early. But from a dollars spent view, it doesn't work.
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  #23  
Old October 15th, 2013, 02:42 PM
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At this point, there is so much competing theory, we have no choice but to let obamacare out to sea, and see if it floats or sinks on it's own by the fact. If it floats, Dems will get all the glory, because they own it outright, and good for them if healthcare costs do actually go down after markets stop speculating on it.

All I want is a balanced budget amendment to the constitution. I don't care what we buy with it, as long as we can afford it. If Dems want obamacare so bad, they can have it, but they can't have it all. Somethings gotta give.
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  #24  
Old October 15th, 2013, 02:55 PM
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Believe it or not, smokers are cheaper for society than non-smokers, especially considering the tax revenue.

Obesity is an issue and does drive up costs over a life time because of the chronic diseases it causes (look at the lifetime costs to treat type 2 diabetus).

The biggest problems are people with non-terminal (at least in the near term) chronic diseases and "end of life" care. Obamacare is dealing with the former by shifting costs from the chronically ill to the healthy (that is why policies for healthy people have gone up double or more and now have unattainable high deductibles) and no one wants to deal with the latter (ie "death panels").

The bottom line is if you are some combination of young, healthy, and make more than 45k Obamacare is a terrible deal for you. Most of the people I know do not plan to buy insurance and rather pay the penalty. So now you will have healthy uninsured (who can buy as soon as they get sick) and sick insured. Do the math. The end result is not pretty. My personal opinion is that is what the Obamacare supporters want, because the end result will be that we have to go to socialized medicine. Once the high healthcare users get coverage, it will be nearly impossible to take it away.
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  #25  
Old October 15th, 2013, 03:10 PM
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I dont see any way for it to float. Im a numbers guy, and the numbers have never added up on Obamacare. I saw (see) no way for any of the promises (talking points) to pencil out. It was all unicorns and rainbows.

-Jeff
My forecast too, but this country by majority is going to have to figure it out for themselves the hard way. Most voters treat elections just like credit cards. It's all fun and games until the bill shows up in the mailbox. Then it's all "WTF happened?"

------ Follow up post added October 15th, 2013 03:15 PM ------

It's amazingly predictable and understandable why every single Democrat EXCEPT the clintons have publicly sold their sole to Obamacare. Not a peep from them though. The only ones left standing when this blows up will be Billary on Nov 2016 when the facts come out of the GAO and land on congressional desks. Then they'll be all about healthcare reform (AKA yes Obama screwed it up but we can fix it!)
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  #26  
Old October 15th, 2013, 03:19 PM
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The whole situation sucks.. I blame politicians as a whole. D/R/everyone else, its all politicians playing the system and they don't give a shit because they make more than enough $$ and half of them don't have to play by their own rules. They know the end is coming and they are padding their own and their friends pockets before the house of cards comes tumbling down.
We need to borrow more money to pay down the debts we owe. Is this really the case? Did our leaders really let the country get to this point?


anyway... So where does anyone see the country in 5 -10 -20 years? Is there a way out of this??
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  #27  
Old October 15th, 2013, 03:31 PM
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Friends, Romans (correction: Americans), countrymen, the 21st century is the new 5th century!
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  #28  
Old October 15th, 2013, 03:50 PM
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Originally Posted by 61rover View Post
The problem with this logic is that facts get in the way. There has NEVER been an empirical study that shows spending money on preventive care saves money on acute care down the road. We all want to believe it's true because it makes us feel good and makes us think we're doing something positive. The facts are there is no connection between preventive care and acute care. There just isn't.

We spend billions on preventive care because we are compassionate. It's the "If it saves just one life" mindset. Here's an example. The billions of dollars spent on mamograms is mostly wasted. We give them to all women every year. 90% of them will never get breast cancer, but we test everyone annually. From a strictly financial perspective, we'd be better off testing no one and accepting the cost of treatment. But we are a compassionate society and don't do that in order to hopefully catch a few cases early. But from a dollars spent view, it doesn't work.
Yes, I agree. People will not change their behavior patterns. The uneducated will still eat shitty and fail to take proper care of themselves regardless if there is free healthcare or not.
I was just stating the logic used to promote Obamacare. It's a complete social experiment, but lets remove the word "experiment" because if they were actually scientific about it and used real data the model would not make sense. instead, they have an outcome that they want to support and they manipulate the data around that outcome (backing the bus in so-to-speak).

I also agree with Evilfj with regard to the declining number of healthy members vs. the increasing number of sick members of any partuicular group. THat will completely derail this entire model.
I'd consider paying the penalty in lieu of $2k/mo insurance premium, but with two kids (both boys), I'm betting that they cost more in ER visits over a decade than could be saved by balking on health insurance. So unfortunately, that's not a viable option for me.

We're screwed. Nobody will win in the end. I know doctors (specialists and general physicians) who are taking early retirement. They see the writing on the wall.

Finally, I'm also feeling the same way as Mark. We own this as a country. We (as a country) thought it was a good idea to elect Obama (for a 2nd time), so guess what folks? we are going to ride this elevator car right to the basement with him whether we like it or not. Obamacare will likely fail and when it does and by the time we take any corrective measures we will have damaged our capitalistic ecosystem so badly, we will be just like the UK less than a decade.
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  #29  
Old October 15th, 2013, 04:14 PM
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Originally Posted by mgreenspan View Post
White Castle had the best solution. Don't change anything for their full time employees(the ones they really care about) and screw over the part timers completely by cutting their hours and benefits! The other thing they decided to do was open less restaurants for potential growth and local job growth. Down from 9 to 2 stores per year.
less Whitecastle will have a direct positive benefit on peoples health ..
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  #30  
Old October 15th, 2013, 05:37 PM
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Originally Posted by Overlander View Post
At this point, there is so much competing theory, we have no choice but to let obamacare out to sea, and see if it floats or sinks on it's own by the fact. If it floats, Dems will get all the glory, because they own it outright, and good for them if healthcare costs do actually go down after markets stop speculating on it.

All I want is a balanced budget amendment to the constitution. I don't care what we buy with it, as long as we can afford it. If Dems want obamacare so bad, they can have it, but they can't have it all. Somethings gotta give.

This pic shows the gross costs, but the net costs in 2023 are still $170 BILLION and the total over the next ten years is expected to be $1.3 TRILLION.
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  #31  
Old October 15th, 2013, 05:43 PM
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Originally Posted by Shep29 View Post

This pic shows the gross costs, but the net costs in 2023 are still $170 BILLION and the total over the next ten years is expected to be $1.3 TRILLION.
So about as much as the Iraq war then?
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  #32  
Old October 15th, 2013, 05:45 PM
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So about as much as the Iraq war then?
Don't know exactly but sounds about right.
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  #33  
Old October 15th, 2013, 05:46 PM
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I own a small business and had to stop providing health care a few years ago because of the rise in cost. Fast forward 2 years my and all my employees and myself who have a personal insurance will see an increase of 50%-75% increase. Policy's that we no longer be available under new laws. Everybody I have talked to cost will go up. It is all a joke. Health care need an overhaul for sure, but this current plan is awful. Not sure all the ends and outs, but if they would open the doors in every state to allow multiple providers to offer insurance then competition will also lower the price. Here in NC there is only a couple companies you can get health insurance threw. Look at auto insurance and how competitive that is.

Also have to do something with the ambulance chasing lawyers. Insurance premiums for Dr are outrageous because of them. Lower there risk and business cost will also lower the price.
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  #34  
Old October 15th, 2013, 06:30 PM
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Originally Posted by scout110801 View Post
I own a small business and had to stop providing health care a few years ago because of the rise in cost. Fast forward 2 years my and all my employees and myself who have a personal insurance will see an increase of 50%-75% increase. Policy's that we no longer be available under new laws. Everybody I have talked to cost will go up. It is all a joke. Health care need an overhaul for sure, but this current plan is awful. Not sure all the ends and outs, but if they would open the doors in every state to allow multiple providers to offer insurance then competition will also lower the price. Here in NC there is only a couple companies you can get health insurance threw. Look at auto insurance and how competitive that is. Also have to do something with the ambulance chasing lawyers. Insurance premiums for Dr are outrageous because of them. Lower there risk and business cost will also lower the price.
Once again, everyone who currently works their butts off and diligently pays their premiums are going to pay for the 40 million who chooses the buffet at Pizza Hut, Verizon, and Direct TV. This has nothing to do with lowering cost or improving service for you. The argument of prevention does not apply because once again, the decision making capability and prioritizing capabilities are seriously degraded in the 40 million. This crap pisses me off and Im on government health care.

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  #35  
Old October 15th, 2013, 06:44 PM
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Health insurance under Obamacare is nothing like auto insurance. Auto insurance is priced based on risk. Health insurance is capped at a multiple between highest cost and lowest cost. Basically a guy with no license, three DUIs, ten vehicular manslaughters from killing a bus of children, with a new ferrari, seven other cars, and who is legally blind would pay 3x the auto premium of someone with no accidents, no points and who drives an 84 volvo. Math just does not work.

Competition does not work because they have made illegal the cheap policies (mainly catastrophic coverage with high deductibles but which does not economically cover routine stuff).
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  #36  
Old October 15th, 2013, 08:04 PM
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My point exactly. It should be based on risk and it should be an open market. Some states only have 2 companies that can quote insurance. If my memory is correct NC has like 4 or 5 that you can even get insurance from. That has been the case for ever. If health insurance was opened and companies could quote based on an individual and there needs and it was a free market place cost would come down. My 3 year olds insurance went up 40% starting next year. I think the whole thing is a mess. I used the auto insurance as an example. There are tons if company's you can get quotes from no matter what state you live in. Health insurance has always been different. If you are in happy with your provider some times you are stuck with health insurance provider. They do not fear the threat of you leaving them. Open market would change the game big time. Under Obama care it is not going to happen. He wants you to take the government option. All that makes me think about is the DMV and what a cluster that is.

Republicans are playing the only card they could play, but it is getting old fast. It all makes me sick to begin with. Obama care is a joke. I have part time employees who get some government assistance that are now going to have to give all there assistants up plus some because they have to have coverage under new plan. They are looking at just paying the penalty. Advice given to them by the government employee.

Total mess!!!
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  #37  
Old October 15th, 2013, 08:39 PM
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My point exactly. It should be based on risk
That is a scary proposition, who would decide what constitutes risk and how much they pay?

If you have a family history of medical issues does that make you high risk?
If you have had cancer and survived does that make you high risk?
If you rock climb does that make you high risk?
People that work around carcinogens?
Smokers? Ex-Smokers? Drug users? People that consume alcohol? People that are overweight?

How much money do you assign each risk factor and how much for each type of risk
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  #38  
Old October 15th, 2013, 08:45 PM
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That is a scary proposition, who would decide what constitutes risk and how much they pay?
Thanks to the extra IRS agents hired for Obamacare, they will know how much they can take from you. Look on the bright side, your anus will be probed free of charge every year at least once.
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  #39  
Old October 15th, 2013, 09:11 PM
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Originally Posted by dave_lucas View Post
That is a scary proposition, who would decide what constitutes risk and how much they pay?

If you have a family history of medical issues does that make you high risk?
If you have had cancer and survived does that make you high risk?
If you rock climb does that make you high risk?
People that work around carcinogens?
Smokers? Ex-Smokers? Drug users? People that consume alcohol? People that are overweight?

How much money do you assign each risk factor and how much for each type of risk
And with that, DNA samples and NSA Facebook monitoring enter stage left...
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  #40  
Old October 15th, 2013, 09:16 PM
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With the new policy in place you only have a couple options in the open market or take government option. That is a slippery slope almost forcing people to go to the government option. When you only have a few choices per government regulations per rules they have set sounds crazy to me. I was warned several years ago when the Obama care was taking place that the ultimate goal is to get as many people on government ticket. Small business are going to be hit really hard by this.

Isn't a lot of things based on risk? Your credit. Your life insurance. Your car insurance. Do you think it is far for a smoker, over weight person who does not care about there health pay the same for somebody who does? Look we're giving credit to everybody to become a home owner did to our economy.

I think affordable health care is very important and should be offered in some sort of option. I don't think it is fair to raise the cost for everybody else. I think the private sector could lower the cost with competition vs trying to get people on a government option.

In my first post on this I brought up the law suits that drive up our cost. The other cost is people with out insurance at all getting care and not paying anything. I know people that did not have any insurance then had to have major surgery and the hospital is working with them because they are willing to work out a payment plan. The problem is the people who don't care about paying it back. I know a guy who has a $75k hospital bill that is paying back $80 a month. The hospital has been more than happy to work with him.

I think it is all a mess and my personal opinion is Obama care is not the answer.
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